November ’25 Market Pulse

EV Market Overview

The global electric vehicle (EV) market entered the final quarter of 2025 with tempered momentum following the expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit on September 30. The end of the $7,500 subsidy, coupled with higher financing costs and persistent affordability challenges, has led automakers to adapt quickly. Ford and General Motors launched temporary programs to continue offering the lease credit through creative financing structures that maintain consumer incentives (Colias, 2025). These initiatives aim to sustain EV demand through the end of the year as the market transitions to a post-subsidy landscape.

Tesla, meanwhile, raised lease prices across its U.S. lineup in response to the policy change, marking a strategic shift as its market share continues to decline amid increasing competition and slowing demand (Yahoo, 2025). Across the broader industry, third-quarter data revealed strong EV and SUV sales, boosted by a last-minute buying surge before the credit expired (Miller, 2025). However, imported models, particularly from South Korea and China, faced steeper declines as U.S. tariffs reduced affordability.

Internationally, China’s decision to remove EVs from its 2026–2030 five-year economic plan signals a major pivot away from the state-backed EV expansion that defined the past decade (Reuters, 2025). The move highlights the country’s growing struggle with industry overcapacity and intense domestic competition, as well as shifting focus toward new frontier technologies such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing. Despite these challenges, innovation continues to define the sector: Lucid Group’s announcement of a mid-size, Level 4 autonomous EV powered by Nvidia’s DRIVE AGX Thor chips underscores how AI integration remains central to the next phase of electrified transportation (Reuters, 2025).

Altogether, the EV landscape in late 2025 reflects both the maturation and recalibration of a rapidly evolving industry. While short-term sales may soften in the absence of tax incentives, ongoing advancements in automation, battery efficiency, and cost management position the market for renewed growth in 2026 and beyond.

Economic Indicators (Q4 2025):

GDP (Gross Domestic Product):
Trend: The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q3 2025, slightly below Q2’s 2.8% growth.
Impact: Slower but steady expansion reflects cooling consumer demand following higher borrowing costs and the end of key tax credits.
Regional Note: Manufacturing output moderated, though infrastructure and energy sectors continued to show resilience.

Nonfarm Payroll & Employment:
Trend: October 2025 added 162,000 jobs, with unemployment edging up to 4.4%.
Impact: The labor market remains stable but continues to normalize as hiring slows across retail and manufacturing.
Regional Note: Job gains concentrated in health care, energy, and professional services.

CPI (Consumer Price Index):
Trend: October CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, marking continued progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal.
Impact: Declining inflation supports the likelihood of a modest Fed rate cut in early 2026.
Regional Note: Energy and food prices declined, though housing costs remain persistently high in major metro areas.

PPI (Producer Price Index):
Trend: October PPI increased 1.9% year-over-year, signaling easing input costs for manufacturers.
Impact: Lower producer inflation is providing marginal relief for automakers facing tariff pressures and slowing sales.
Regional Note: Cost declines are broad-based, led by metals and transportation equipment inputs.

Electrified Transportation in the News:

In the wake of the federal EV tax credit expiration, automakers have moved swiftly to cushion the market impact. Ford and General Motors introduced leasing programs that extend the benefit to customers through their financing divisions, buying vehicles before the credit deadline to preserve eligibility (Colias, 2025). These efforts are intended to sustain EV affordability and prevent a sharp post-credit sales drop.

The transition period sparked a strong Q3 sales surge across several key brands. Hyundai, Ford, Chevy, and Volkswagen saw major year-over-year gains in EV and SUV categories, particularly for models such as the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Ford Mustang Mach-E, and VW ID.4 (Miller, 2025). However, brands heavily reliant on imported vehicles, including Buick and Audi, experienced steep declines due to tariff pressures.

Tesla’s response to the policy change, raising lease prices by $50–$100 per month, underscored its shifting strategy amid waning dominance (Yahoo, 2025). With its U.S. EV market share now below 40%, the automaker faces mounting competition from both legacy players and new entrants leveraging creative financing and design advantages.

Globally, China’s exclusion of EVs from its next five-year plan represents a historic policy shift (Reuters, 2025). The government’s refocus toward hydrogen, fusion, and quantum technologies indicates a redirection of state resources and an acknowledgment of the EV industry’s overcapacity and profitability challenges.

In contrast to China’s retrenchment, U.S. innovation remains robust. Lucid Group’s partnership with Nvidia to build a self-driving, mid-size EV positions the company as a forward-looking player in both autonomy and mass-market electrification (Reuters, 2025). The project leverages Nvidia’s DRIVE AGX Thor chips to enable Level 4 autonomy and improve factory efficiency through AI-driven production tools.

As 2025 closes, the EV and autonomous sectors continue to evolve through a blend of policy headwinds and technological leaps. Companies with diversified strategies and AI-driven innovation are best positioned to navigate the uncertain but opportunity-rich landscape of 2026.

Works Cited

Colias, M. (2025, September 29). World Business Markets Sustainability More My News Feedback Exclusive: Ford, GM launch programs to extend use of $7,500 EV lease credit. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-gm-launch-programs-extend-use-7500-ev-lease-credit-2025-09-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Miller, C. (2025, October 2). The Biggest Winners and Losers in Auto Sales in Q3 2025. Retrieved from Car and Driver: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g68271210/auto-sales-q3-2025-winners-losers/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Reuters. (2025, October 28). China excludes EVs in latest five-year plan as industry grapples with oversupply. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-excludes-evs-latest-five-year-plan-industry-grapples-with-oversupply-2025-10-28/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Reuters. (2025, October 28). Lucid to launch self-driving mid-size EV with Nvidia chips . Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lucid-launch-self-driving-mid-size-ev-with-nvidia-chips-2025-10-28/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Yahoo. (2025, October 1). Tesla hikes lease prices as US electric vehicle tax credit expires. Retrieved from Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-hikes-lease-price-us-073440875.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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